Notes
Slide Show
Outline
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October 14, 2005
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Real Estate Update
  • October 14, 2005
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Real Estate Capital Markets Top Ten Issues
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Real Estate Capital Markets Top Ten Issues
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Economic “Messages”
  • Positive
  • Steady GDP/Employment Growth
  • Increased Federal  Spending
  • Healthy Retail Sales
  • Record Commercial Real Estate Sales Prices
  • Projected US growth above Europe/World Average
  • Established Capital Markets
  • Strong history of Corporate Profits and Investment
  • Ongoing “Safe Haven” for Foreign Direct Investment
  • Low Interest Rates


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GDP Actual and Blue Chip Forecast
Annualized Percent Change From Prior Quarter
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Employment Growth U.S.
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Personal Consumption Expenditures
Contribution to % Change in GDP
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Business Fixed Investment
Contribution to % Change in GDP
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Retail  Sales
Millions of Dollars, Seasonally Adjusted
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Economic “Messages”
  • Mixed
  • Strong Fed messages / short term rate increases
  • Growing Inflation Concerns
  • Positive but fluctuating Business Investment
  • Recent Strong Corporate Profits, but future unclear
  • Mixed Industrial Signals, durable goods/inventories
  • Potential Housing Bubble in Some Areas


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3-Month T-Bill vs. 10-Year T-Bond
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Spread - 3-Month T-Bill vs. 10-Year T-Bond
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Economic “Messages”
  • Negative
  • Nervous Consumers/ lower consumer confidence
  • Stock Market Volatility
  • Treasury Yield Compression
  • Record Private Debt /Low Personal Savings Rate
  • Growing Trade/Budget Deficit
  • Corporate Scandals


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Federal Budget Balance
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Current Account
Balance of Payments Basis
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Vacancy Rate by Type
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Completions by Type
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Cincinnati : Vacancy By Type
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Real Estate Investment Outlooks
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Office Employment, Office Vacancy and Rent
Data as of 1Q 2005
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Office Sales Price Vs. Rents
Data as of 2q05
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Retail Sales, Vacancy and Rent
Data as of 1q05
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Retail Sales Price Vs. Rents
Rent data as of 1q05, sales data as of 2q05
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Real Estate Investment Outlooks
  • Multi-Family
    • Investors need to sort out the different dynamics of the rental and condo conversion components of the sector.  Condo conversions are driving values up and cap rates down in hot markets.  Many investors will keep what they have, but razor-thin spreads in some markets should raise red flags about increasing their allocation.
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Multi-Family Completions & Vacancy %
As of 1Q 2005
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Multi-Family Sales Price Vs. Rents
Rent data as of 1q05, Sales data as of 2q05
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U.S. Existing Single Family
Home Sales
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Full Service Hotel Occupancy and Room Rate
Data as of 1q2005
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Limited Service Hotel Occupancy and Room Rate
Data as of 1q2005
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Hotel  Going-In Cap Rate
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Comparative Returns
YTD from Prior Year End
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Comparative Returns
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NCREIF Comparative Returns
Historical Returns
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Property Sales Volumes
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NCREIF Returns -Annual
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NCREIF  Total Return by Type
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NCREIF  Total Return by Region
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Avg. Cap Rate Spreads
To  10-Year Treasury Yield
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REIT Market Capitalization (All REITs)
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Capital Flows to Private REITs
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REIT Market Cap by Segment
as of 7/31/2005
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REIT Returns by Property Type
YTD % Returns
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US/Non-US CMBS Issuance
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CMBS by Property Type
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International GDP History & Forecast
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European Property Returns by Country
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Foreign Investment in US Real Estate
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Panel Discussion
  • Bill Blackham, Eagle Hospitality
  • John Frank, Jr., Colliers Turley Martin Tucker
  • Bob Gorman, Deloitte
  • Mario San Marco, Eagle Realty Group
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Acquisitions
Unleveraged Returns
Going-In Capitalization Rates/Overall Investment Yields
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Acquisitions
Leveraged Returns
Going-In Capitalization Rates/Overall Investment Yields
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Development Projects
Unleveraged Returns
Going-In Capitalization Rates/Overall Investment Yields
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Development Projects
Leveraged Returns
Going-In Capitalization Rates/Overall Investment Yields